71.7% Of Canadian Exports Go To The USA

 

By the Numbers: Ottawa Can’t Tour Its Way Around the U.S.

'Elbows Up'  - Just Silly Talk! - Fool Me Once!

71.7%. That is the share of Canada’s merchandise exports that still went to the United States in 2025. Not 30 per cent. Not 40 per cent. More than seven out of every ten export dollars still depended on the American market. 

1.8 million. That is how many Canadians worked in 2024 in industries where at least 35 per cent of jobs depended on U.S. demand for Canadian exports. This is not some abstract policy file. It is a national paycheque file.

Three. That is the number of active Canada-vs.-U.S. tariff disputes now sitting under the CUSMA machinery on Ottawa’s own website: the 2025 U.S. import duties, the Section 232 steel and aluminum duties, and the Section 232 auto duties. In other words, CUSMA is not optional. It is the legal front line.

17.2% and $112.9 billion. Yes, exports to countries other than the U.S. rose 17.2 per cent in 2025. But Canada’s merchandise trade deficit with non-U.S. countries still widened to $112.9 billion. So diversification may be useful, but the numbers say it plainly: it is not replacing the U.S. market. 

And yet the Carney government keeps selling diversification as the big headline. His own office said he was travelling to India, Australia, and Japan to “diversify our trade abroad” and “forge new partnerships.” Fine. Do that. But don’t confuse a hedge with a substitute. Ottawa’s own CUSMA consultations found stakeholders broadly said the agreement is generally working well and backed a “do no harm” approach heading into the 2026 review. That should tell the government where the real priority lies.

The hard truth is simple: Canada cannot tour, posture, or headline its way out of economic geography. The United States is still the market that matters most. So yes, diversify where you can. But any government that treats CUSMA as secondary is not showing strategic vision.

It is gambling with the country’s economic lifeline.