Hey Mark - Slogans Don't Buy Groceries"

Canada “thrives because we are Canadian” — sure. And I “breathe because I’m a mammal.”

Mark Carney’s line — “Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.” — is the kind of applause-ready sentence that plays great on a stage and terribly in a spreadsheet.

Because here’s the inconvenient part: Canada’s export economy is structurally welded to the United States. That’s not ideology. That’s math.

In 2024, the United States took 75.9% of Canada’s total exports and supplied 62.2% of our imports. Canada–U.S. goods trade (imports + exports) topped $1 trillion for the third year in a row, and Canada ran a $102.3 billion merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. (Statistics Canada)

So when a Prime Minister starts posturing as if we can casually “re-balance” away from the U.S. while publicly poking the White House, that isn’t independence. It’s self-harm dressed up as confidence.

The problem with patriotic slogans: they don’t pay for groceries

Patriotism is fine. Pride is healthy. But if you confuse pride with leverage, you end up negotiating like a teenager who thinks their allowance is a salary.

Canada can’t afford the fantasy that we “thrive because we’re Canadian” in isolation. We thrive because we sell, ship, integrate, and trade — primarily with one customer that dwarfs all others.

And now, in the real world, Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Canada “follows through” on a China trade deal. That may be a threat today, but threats at this scale are an economic gun on the table — especially for a country that sends roughly three-quarters of its exports south.

China “wins” are being sold like finished deals — but they’re still mostly “expects”

We keep hearing that Carney’s China outreach will unlock big economic relief — especially for agriculture. The government’s own backgrounder repeatedly uses the word “expects.” By March 1, 2026, Canada expects China will drop tariffs on Canadian canola seed to about 15%, down from 84%, improving market access for about $4 billion in annual canola seed exports to China.

That could matter. But where is the public accounting for the real-world impact?

How much additional volume will actually move?
At what net price to farmers after middlemen and transport take their cut?
How fast do shipments recover?
What happens if the “expects” language becomes “delayed” language?

Until that’s measured, it’s not an economic strategy — it’s a press release.

Meanwhile, our U.S. surplus is not a talking point. It’s oxygen.

Look at the difference in posture:

With the U.S., Canada has historically had the kind of trade relationship that feeds paycheques, stabilizes currency, and keeps plants open. Even in October 2025 — a single month snapshot — Statistics Canada reported Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $8.4B to $4.8B, while exports to the U.S. fell 3.4% in that month. (Statistics Canada)

That’s not abstract. That’s the difference between “we’re fine” and “we’re laying people off.”

So why would any Prime Minister treat the U.S. relationship like it’s a prop in a global branding exercise?

The grown-up standard: show the work

If Carney wants Canadians to believe this China pivot is serious — and not just photo ops and memorandums of understanding — then he should do what serious governments do:

Publish the impact analysis.

Not a speech. Not a vibe. Not a slogan.

A real public scorecard:

Projected net benefit from China tariff relief (farm income, jobs, GDP) with clear assumptions.
Risk model for U.S. retaliation: scenarios, probabilities, and mitigations.
Enforcement plan to prevent “backdoor China” accusations (rules-of-origin audits, customs controls, penalties).
Success metrics to be reported after March 1, 2026: export volumes, realized prices, and timelines.

If they can’t show that work, then we’re not watching statecraft — we’re watching marketing.

Here’s the reality check Canada needs

Canada doesn’t “live because of” the U.S. the way a dependent “lives because of” a benefactor. That framing is insulting. But Canada does operate inside an economic structure where the U.S. is the dominant market — and pretending otherwise is reckless. (Statistics Canada)

Being Canadian isn’t a substitute for policy. It’s the reason policy has to be competent.

If Carney wants to stand tall, great — but stand tall with receipts.

Because the first duty of a Prime Minister isn’t to win applause in Davos. It’s to protect the country’s economic foundation while building real, measurable alternatives — not symbolic ones.

And if the plan is to antagonize the customer that buys three-quarters of what we sell, while calling “expects” a victory and hoping the math doesn’t show up…

That’s not leadership.

That’s a slogan riding shotgun in a truck headed for a cliff.

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