CHINA MORE PREDICTABLE?

 

CANADA NEEDS A CANADA FIRST TRADE POLICY

NOT A CHINA PIVOT

 At Davos on January 20, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada “strongly opposes” any U.S. tariffs tied to Trump’s push on Greenland. 

Fair enough. Canada should oppose economic coercion.

But then Ottawa needs to explain something:

Why are we moving toward deeper trade dependence on China—where the numbers are worse for Canada—while treating the U.S. relationship like it’s disposable?

The U.S. is still our dominant customer. Reuters reports Canada sends close to 70% of exports south of the border—and 90% of crude still goes to the U.S. 

Statistics Canada shows that even in October 2025, Canada ran a $4.8 billion trade surplus with the U.S.

Now look at China.

Global Affairs says exports to China were $29.9B in 2024—just 3.8% of Canada’s merchandise exports. 
The Conference Board reports Canada imported about $87B from China and exported about $30B in 2024—an imbalance of roughly $57B. 

And Reuters reports Carney said China is now a “more predictable partner” than the U.S. 
That line matters—because it came as Canada agreed to allow up to 49,000 Chinese EVs at 6.1% tariff, replacing the 100% tariff set in 2024.

Diversification is smart. Dependency swap is not.

So here’s what Canadians should demand: a Canada-first trade test, published in plain language, before any deeper “strategic partnership” moves ahead.

If this is about national strength, the government should be able to prove it—with the numbers.