CMHC Forecasts Big Drop In BC Real Estate Price

CMHC expects real estate prices to decline starting later this year and won't find bottom for a year or two. 

CMHC used typical risk forecasts with upper and lower bounds for price movement. The upper bound is where prices head if recovery is swift while the lower bound is where prices head if the recovery takes longer.

B.C. is expected to see one of the largest drops in the country. The upper bound sees the average price bottom in Q2 2021 down 14.33% from the past March. The lower bound forecast would see the average bottom one year later in Q2 2022 down 22.69%. The province underperforms the rest of the country generally in either scenario.

B.C. is expected to see a much longer recovery timeline than the rest of the country. In the upper bound prices would still be down 9.52% at the end of 2022. In the lower bound prices are still down a staggering 21.74% at the end of 2022.